UN Climate Body Struggling to Pinpoint Rising Sea Levels

The United Nations’ forecast of how quickly global sea levels will rise this century is vital in determining how much money might be needed to combat the phenomenon. But predictions by researchers vary wildly, and the attempt to find consensus has become fractious.

…Furthermore, the more rapid rise since 1993, even if it existed, may not be out of the ordinary, says Guy Wöppelmann of the Université de La Rochelle in France. The sea level rise increased in rate at times during the 20th century, only to slow down again later.

The same thing can be observed now, says Eduardo Zorita, from the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Centre for Meterials and Coastal Research. In the last eight years, he says, the rise of the oceans has slowed — and what the future may hold is uncertain.

…As a result, researchers don’t agree on what to expect. Whereas James Hansen expects a five meter rise, his colleague Simon Holgate says that “I think that even in the highest emission scenario we won’t exceed a global average of one meter of sea level rise by 2100.”  Read more…

Don’t forget that sea levels have been rising naturally for hundreds of years, at 1.5-3mm/year as we come out of a mini ice age, and current rate of rise of 3 mm/year has been slowing down for 8 years, when it and global temperatures should be rising according to IPCC models. That projects to a rise less that 30cm by 2100.

This is sounding almost like the science is not settled after all, Julia….